Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 13.598179 16.604200 19.945137 23.909478 28.460174 33.495539 39.462590
2025-11-16 9.109127 12.914347 17.619631 23.758507 31.442010 40.624562 52.302141
2025-11-23 6.441201 10.366854 15.666131 23.111923 33.052409 45.606138 62.369369
2025-11-30 5.134547 9.199349 15.096945 23.882714 36.203263 52.410553 74.827362
2025-12-07 3.917103 7.828261 13.924174 23.528657 37.626948 56.871453 84.334146
2025-12-14 3.141286 6.948367 13.279543 23.756297 39.745683 62.255213 95.210633
2025-12-21 2.311101 5.747918 11.895687 22.626804 39.694761 64.505048 101.792708
2025-12-28 1.933708 5.291405 11.655501 23.230157 42.220086 70.484862 113.781724
2026-01-04 1.588855 4.803469 11.266232 23.508958 44.209805 75.726400 124.882713
2026-01-11 1.327045 4.421186 11.000169 23.942181 46.433275 81.376878 136.756150
2026-01-18 1.135546 4.148393 10.895722 24.629543 49.085058 87.762982 149.918053
2026-01-25 0.888088 3.646926 10.234592 24.206151 49.812588 91.161798 158.686797
2026-02-01 0.707553 3.280236 9.832668 24.299922 51.558832 96.452004 170.878362
2026-02-08 0.547414 2.905288 9.343222 24.170186 52.913710 101.208034 182.496271
2026-02-15 0.398896 2.484162 8.646762 23.516304 53.244088 104.269111 191.540148
2026-02-22 0.336029 2.349383 8.637440 24.297598 56.256534 111.888533 208.041122
2026-03-01 0.249199 2.054411 8.136462 23.938772 57.072496 115.815664 218.728450
2026-03-08 0.196281 1.875538 7.914136 24.169485 59.020411 121.735366 232.812381
2026-03-15 0.128192 1.542814 7.147078 23.024683 58.155943 122.706534 238.779013
2026-03-22 0.104573 1.453740 7.115262 23.636235 60.851588 130.036691 255.497386
2026-03-29 0.081019 1.336297 6.959872 23.918808 62.879481 136.238418 270.489386
2026-04-05 0.063841 1.245098 6.871371 24.357872 65.251812 143.136644 286.837296
2026-04-12 0.052094 1.185317 6.881936 25.054454 68.203515 151.184132 305.343617